CREG Validates Elia's Y-4 Capacity Auction Results for 2030-2031 Delivery Period

On 28 October 2026, CREG adopted Decision (B)3312 formally validating the results of the Y-4 capacity auction for the 2030-2031 delivery period organized by Elia, after reviewing the independent Capacity Market Auditor's (CEPA) analysis report and independently reproducing the demand curve correction and capacity selection process.

This decision confirms the regulatory integrity of Belgium's capacity remuneration mechanism (CRM) auction process four years ahead of the 2030-2031 delivery period, enabling publication of binding auction results that determine which capacity providers receive capacity payments and at what clearing price, directly affecting long-term security of supply and investment signals.

The decision illustrates the layered governance of Belgium's CRM, combining an independent market auditor (CEPA), TSO (Elia) data submission, and CREG's own replication of the demand curve adjustment methodology before validation. Significant demand curve corrections (net reduction of over 3,100 MW after opt-outs, ineligible capacity reclassification, and energy-constrained capacity adjustments) materially shape the clearing price and selected capacity mix. The absence of identified network constraints and CEPA's clean audit opinion support an uncontested validation, but CREG explicitly reserves the right to revisit the decision if underlying information proves inaccurate, highlighting residual regulatory risk even after formal validation.

Belgian Electricity Law of 29 April 1999, Article 7undecies §§10, 12 and 13; Royal Decree of 30 May 2021 on CRM control modalities; CRM Functioning Rules approved by Royal Decree of 5 August 2026

Publication of Y-4 2030-2031 auction results on Elia's website · 31 Oct 2026

Primary sources