CREG approves Belgium's first Flexibility Needs Assessment (FNA) report under EU Regulation 2019/943

CREG adopted draft decision (B)3313 on 8 October 2026 approving Elia's first national Flexibility Needs Assessment (FNA) report, prepared under the ACER FNA methodology (approved 25 July 2025) and Belgium's national FNA methodology (approved by CREG on 16 April 2026). The report assesses renewable-integration, ramping/short-term and network-related flexibility needs for 2030 and 2035 using AdeqFlex'25 scenarios (Current Commitments, Constrained Transition) plus two additional battery-potential scenarios (BAT+, 4.5 GW in 2030 and 5.7 GW in 2035). CREG concludes that, under the assumptions used, no dedicated flexibility support mechanism beyond existing market mechanisms and the CRM is currently justified, and issues recommendations and methodological improvements for future FNA editions. Because Belgium has not yet completed national transposition of Article 19sexies (inserted by Regulation (EU) 2024/1747) or formally designated Elia as the entity responsible for the report, CREG could only adopt a draft (non-final) decision.

This is the first concrete national application of the EU's new flexibility-needs-assessment obligation (Article 19sexies of Regulation (EU) 2019/943), establishing methodological precedents—battery-potential sensitivity scenarios, curtailment bound-case analysis, dual reliability criteria (1h/3h EGEH)—that will shape whether Belgium introduces a dedicated non-fossil flexibility support mechanism alongside the CRM, and how curtailment, battery deployment and demand-side flexibility are weighed in future adequacy and flexibility planning.

The decision operationalizes a new EU-level market-design instrument (the FNA) at national level, bridging adequacy assessment (NRAA/ERAA) and flexibility policy. Key design choices—using AdeqFlex'25 as a proxy NRAA, supplementing it with BAT+ sensitivity scenarios to avoid overstating residual flexibility needs, applying technology-neutral generic flexibility resources, and explicitly deferring decisions on curtailment targets, reliability standards and support-mechanism design to political authorities—signal that Belgium is sequencing flexibility market design carefully, leaning on existing CRM and energy-market signals rather than creating new flexibility remuneration schemes at this stage. The draft (not final) status, pending legal transposition, creates near-term regulatory uncertainty about the report's binding effect and about formal institutional roles (CREG approval power, Elia's designation), which is a structural precondition for future certainty in this process.

Regulation (EU) 2019/943, Article 19sexies (inserted by Regulation (EU) 2024/1747); ACER FNA methodology (ACER Decision 05/2025 of 25 July 2025); CREG national FNA methodology approved by draft decision (B)3184/2 of 16 April 2026; pending Belgian law transposing the EU electricity market organisation reform

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