Germany, Austria and Czech TSOs propose amended probabilistic method for post-intraday-gate-closure cross-zonal capacity in aFRR exchange
ConsultationThe German, Austrian and Czech regulatory-zone-responsible TSOs submitted to BNetzA a proposed amendment to the probabilistic methodology used to calculate, after cross-zonal intraday gate closure, the probability that cross-border transmission capacity is available for the exchange of aFRR balancing capacity under Article 33(6) EBGL. The amendment specifies the forecasting tools (FOX and TIGER) and their algorithms/input data, introduces an 'Initial Exchange Limit' and 'Security Limit' concept feeding the Article 58(3) capacity procurement optimization function, and sets reporting, publication and implementation obligations. BNetzA opened a consultation on the proposal, running until 16 October 2026.
The methodology determines how much cross-zonal transmission capacity can be used for jointly procuring and exchanging aFRR balancing capacity between DE, AT and CZ after the intraday cross-zonal market has closed, directly shaping cross-border balancing capacity liquidity, operational security risk management, and the functioning of the Article 58(3) capacity procurement optimization function that underpins the trilateral aFRR cooperation (currently applied on the CZ-DE and CZ-AT borders).
This is a technical but consequential balancing-market design instrument: it formalizes a probabilistic, forecast-based alternative to deterministic cross-zonal capacity allocation methodologies for the balancing timeframe, ahead of the full EBGL Title IV Chapter 2 methodologies being developed. By specifying two parallel forecasting tools (a historical-averaging model 'FOX' and a machine-learning model 'TIGER') with priority/non-priority designation and fallback logic, the proposal embeds a risk-managed trade-off between maximizing exchangeable aFRR capacity and protecting operational security (via the Security Limit and local fallback procedures). The requirement for ex-post risk monitoring reports (at 3/6/9/12 months post go-live) and algorithm disclosure before application signals regulatory emphasis on transparency and accountability for probabilistic (rather than deterministic) capacity determinations — a precedent-setting approach given the explicit acknowledgment that 'there is no precedence' for such a methodology underpinning balancing capacity exchange. Outcomes of the BNetzA consultation and eventual approval could influence how other TSO regions approach post-gate-closure capacity forecasting for balancing capacity markets.
Commission Regulation (EU) 2017/2195 (EBGL) Article 33(6), Article 6(3), Article 5(3)(c); Commission Regulation (EU) 2017/1485 (SOGL) Articles 141(2), 150(1), 157; Regulation (EU) 2019/943
Consultation deadline for stakeholder comments · 16 Oct 2026