Commission publishes revised 2026 and 2027 EU ETS1 auction calendars with 190.5 million allowances entering the MSR

DG CLIMA published revised EU ETS1 auction calendars for 2026 and 2027. The calendars reflect the placement of 190,494,202 allowances in the Market Stability Reserve for the September 2026 – August 2027 period. For 2027, common auction platform auctions continue on Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays starting 7 January; German auctions weekly on Fridays starting 8 January; Polish auctions bi-weekly on Wednesdays starting 13 January; and a single Northern Ireland auction on 13 October 2027. The 2027 volumes reflect preliminary adjustments of approximately 27.1 million allowances for maritime allowance cancellation (Articles 3gb and 12(3-e) ETS Directive) and a deduction of approximately 27.86 million allowances for RRF allowances auctioned from Member States' share between 2023 and 2026, to be deducted annually until 2030. The 2026 calendar retains 50,000,000 allowances for the Social Climate Fund under Article 10a(8b), unchanged in the revision. RRF auctioning was completed in June and July 2026, so no further RRF auctions are included. Greece notified the Commission on 23 July of a positive assessment for the ETS Decarbonisation Fund for the Greek Islands and requested auctioning of up to 25 million allowances under Article 10a(9); the 2027 calendars will be updated in September to spread these equally over 12 months. ETS2 auctioning for buildings, road transport and additional sectors will start in January 2027 under Article 8(5) of the Auctioning Regulation, with the 2027 ETS2 calendar to be published by end-September 2026.

The auction calendar is the primary supply-side instrument in the EU carbon market: it fixes how many allowances reach the market, on which days and via which platform, and therefore directly shapes EUA price formation and hedging strategies for power generators, industrials and financial participants. The MSR intake of 190.5 million allowances tightens near-term supply, while the maritime cancellation and RRF deductions further reduce Member State volumes. The confirmation that ETS2 auctions start in January 2027, with a dedicated calendar due by end-September 2026, gives fuel suppliers in buildings and road transport their first concrete timetable for a new compliance market.

This is an implementation-stage administrative act rather than a design change: volumes flow mechanically from the Cap 2024 decision, the phase 4 Member State auction shares and the Auctioning Regulation. The market-design significance lies in the calibration and sequencing signals. First, the MSR intake figure for September 2026 – August 2027 is the operative supply withdrawal parameter for the coming compliance year and is the single most price-relevant number in the publication. Second, the calendar embeds two structural deductions that will persist: the roughly 27.86 million allowance annual clawback of RRF front-loaded volumes running to 2030, and a preliminary approximately 27.1 million maritime cancellation that the Commission explicitly flags as an estimate subject to later revision once reported emissions versus surrendered allowances are known — so participants should expect at least one further 2027 calendar revision on that basis alone. Third, two known additive events are already in the pipeline: the Greek Islands Decarbonisation Fund tranche of up to 25 million allowances spread equally over 12 months, to be inserted in September, and the separate ETS2 calendar. The Greek tranche partially offsets the tightening from cancellations, so the net 2027 supply picture is not yet settled. Fourth, the auction micro-structure is stable — three weekly common-platform sessions plus separate German and Polish schedules and a single Northern Ireland auction under the Windsor Framework — which preserves predictable liquidity windows but also means the fragmentation of national auctions persists. For traders, the key watch item is the September 2026 revision, which will simultaneously resolve the Greek volume and reveal the ETS2 issuance profile ahead of a January 2027 market opening.

EU ETS Directive (Articles 3gb, 10a(8b), 10a(9), 12(3-e)); Auctioning Regulation (Article 8(5)); Market Stability Reserve; Cap 2024 decision; phase 4 Member State auction shares; Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland (Windsor Framework)

Common auction platform 2027 auctions begin · 7 Jan 2027

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