ARERA approves new weighted-combination algorithm for estimating BRP consumption-side exposure under Italy's dispatch Guarantees Regulation

With deliberazione 369/2026/R/eel (14 October 2026), ARERA positively verified the regulatory conformity of a Terna-proposed revision to the Regolamento Garanzie (Allegato A.61 to the Codice di Rete) governing the dispatch service financial guarantee system. The revision replaces the previous proportional estimation method (based on PMA and comparable ISP shares) for estimating each Balance Responsible Party's (BRP) consumption-side (prelievo) exposure with a dynamically weighted combination of that proportional estimate and the BRP's own base schedule (programma base), with weights shifting toward whichever is more reliable depending on how far the base schedule deviates from the proportional estimate. The new rules also introduce a multiplicative coefficient (0 to 1) applied to imbalance charges used in the exposure calculation, which approaches zero for small estimated imbalances and rises to 1 for imbalances equal to or exceeding the estimated metered volume, mitigating overestimation of BRP exposure and associated excess guarantee requirements.

The Guarantees Regulation underpins Terna's daily monitoring of counterparty credit risk for the dispatch service; an inaccurate exposure estimate can force BRPs to post excessive collateral or, conversely, understate systemic insolvency risk. By better aligning estimated exposure with BRPs' actual, more granular knowledge of their consumption units and by damping the effect of the imbalance price on small deviations, the reform reduces undue capital/guarantee costs for diligent BRPs while preserving incentives against non-diligent scheduling, directly affecting market entry costs and working-capital requirements for all consumption-side dispatching users as the TIDE consolidation phase proceeds.

This is a targeted but consequential recalibration of the credit-risk architecture underpinning Italy's dispatch service rather than a market-structure change per se. It sits within the broader TIDE reform trajectory (BSP/BRP role separation, single guarantee per company) and specifically fixes a known flaw identified during Terna's spring 2026 consultation: the prior proportional estimate (anchored to month m-2 metered data and national-average annual power, without sector or zonal differentiation) could overstate imbalance-driven exposure, particularly via the multiplicative effect of the imbalance price on small percentage deviations. The dynamic weighting mechanism effectively rewards BRPs with higher-quality internal forecasting (base program closely tracking the proportional estimate) with more weight on their own program, while defaulting to the proportional estimate — unmitigated by the dampening coefficient — for schedules that look non-diligent, preserving the TIDE's diligence/prudence principles. Because implementation depends on IT builds targeted for end-February 2027 and a yet-unannounced go-live date (with mandatory ≥45-day advance notice and a dual-estimate transition period), the practical market impact is deferred; however, the explicit ARERA request for a further Terna report by 30 November 2026 on finer-grained annual average power data (by voltage level and commodity category) signals a likely second iteration of the estimation algorithm, tied also to the stalled rollout of consumption-unit withdrawal capacity limits and UCP (Unità Commerciali di Prelievo), which remain suspended pending scrutiny of 2025 BRP scheduling behavior.

Codice di Trasmissione, Dispacciamento, Sviluppo e Sicurezza della Rete, Allegato A.61 (Regolamento Garanzie); Testo Integrato del Dispacciamento Elettrico (TIDE), Allegato A to deliberazione 345/2023/R/eel; ARERA deliberazione 369/2026/R/eel verifying regulatory conformity

Terna report to ARERA on expected benefits of more granular annual average power data (by voltage level and commercial category) · 30 Nov 2026

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