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United States – PJM Interconnection (multi-state RTO: PA, OH, IL, VA, MD, WV, DE, MI, NJ, TN, NC, KY, IN) · pjm-demand-response-statistical-sampling-methodology

PJM IMM Doubles Down on Sampling Safeguards, Adds CBL-Based Performance Metric Demand in Second Round of FERC Briefing

Regulatory review
ADEQUACY & CAPACITY MARKETSN/Ademand response measurementstatistical sampling methodologydata access barriersinterval metering standardscapacity accreditationreliability verification
1Problem identified
2Consultation
3Proposal
4Regulatory review
5Decision
6Implementation
7Go-live
8Market impact
What changed

The PJM IMM filed a November 4, 2026 Answer in FERC Docket No. EL26-4 responding to a October 22, 2026 Answer from Voltus/Mission:data that had opposed the IMM's October 14 Reply Brief safeguards. The new IMM filing enumerates its full list of 11 required conditions for any statistical sampling approval (including a specific 100 UCAP MW initial cap, a pre-implementation pilot test, PJM's 5%/95% standard, and ongoing validation/audit authority), and adds new substantive demands: replacing PJM's PLC-based performance metric with a CBL-based incremental-reduction metric, strengthening nonperformance penalties specifically for sampling-based resources, ending cross-footprint CSP netting that masks local underperformance, and rejecting manipulation-risk dismissals tied to CSP-customer interaction asymmetries. The IMM also rebuts Voltus's framing of sampling as a 'temporary bridge' pending ComEd's 2028-2029 automated data-sharing initiatives, flags Voltus's stated intent to sell sampling-based residential capacity to data centers as inappropriate risk-shifting, and asks the Commission to order PJM, Voltus, and the IMM to jointly develop detailed screening and statistical-method criteria.

Why it matters

The dispute has expanded beyond whether and how much statistical sampling to allow into a parallel fight over how demand response performance itself is measured and penalized, meaning any FERC-approved framework will likely need to resolve both the sampling-eligibility question and a redefinition of the performance baseline (CBL vs. PLC) used for settlement. This widens the scope of the eventual order and raises the stakes for CSP revenue models, since a shift to CBL-based measurement and stricter, sampling-specific penalties would materially change compensation and liability exposure for underperforming demand resources, while the data-center angle highlights how sophisticated commercial counterparties could exploit a residential-targeted accommodation.

Design impact
Price formation●●●
Cross-border capacity○○○
Liquidity●●○
Operational security●●●
Market participants●●●
Affected markets
PJM Reliability Pricing Model (Capacity Market)PJM Emergency Load Response Program (ELRP)PJM Pre-Emergency Load Response Program
Who is affected
Curtailment Service Providers (CSPs)Voltus, Inc.Mission:dataElectric Distribution Companies (EDCs)PJM InterconnectionPJM Independent Market MonitorResidential customers with Direct Load ControlData center developers seeking capacity procurement
MD analysis

This second round of adversarial briefing signals the record is becoming more contested rather than converging, which typically precedes either a narrower, more conditional Commission approval or a request for further technical conference/compliance filing rather than a clean up-or-down ruling. The IMM's explicit ask for a Commission-ordered collaborative process to jointly develop screening criteria and statistical methods suggests the IMM itself anticipates that FERC may not resolve implementation details in its initial order, implying a likely multi-phase rulemaking-style sequence (threshold approval, then detailed compliance filing) rather than immediate go-live of any sampling methodology. The CBL/PLC performance-metric fight, if adopted by FERC even for metered resources' sampling-adjacent treatment, could become a template dispute point for other RTOs' demand response accreditation rules.

Rule / framework

FERC Federal Power Act proceeding, Docket No. EL26-4; PJM Open Access Transmission Tariff (OATT) Attachment K Appendix, Operating Agreement, Reliability Assurance Agreement, and PJM Manuals 11 and 19

Next milestone

FERC Commission order resolving the paper hearing in Docket No. EL26-4

Primary sources

Monitoring Analytics (PJM IMM) · MARKET_MONITOR · 2026-11-04

Answer of the Independent Market Monitor for PJM re Voltus/Mission:data Complaint Docket No. EL26-4

Open primary source ↗
pjmimm-filing-imm-answer-docket-no-el26-4-20261104
Monitoring Analytics (PJM IMM) · MARKET_MONITOR · 2026-10-14

IMM Reply Brief re Voltus Complaint Docket No. EL26-4

Open primary source ↗
pjmimm-filing-imm-brief-docket-no-el26-4-20261014