PRICING

Price a PPA, transparently.

Pick a market and a technology, set the contract, and see the fair fixed price built up from a baseload price view, the asset's capture rate and the risks each side carries. Capture rates and negative-price hours come from the ENTSO-E data behind ANALYSE.

How the price is built

€/MWh · each step is volume-weighted over the tenor with present-value weights at the discount rate · green adds, red deducts

Capture price: what the market paid, what the contract assumes

calendar years · light bar is the baseload price, dark bar the price a solar- or wind-shaped MWh earned · the black line is the fixed PPA price

Sensitivity

the two inputs that move a long contract most

An indicative model, not a valuation. The baseload view is yours to set — it starts from the trailing twelve months of day-ahead prices, which is history, not a forward curve. The capture rate starts from the same twelve months and erodes at the rate the zone has shown over the last three years, capped so the projection stays defensible. Output in negative-price hours is unpaid, as most contracts now provide. Balancing, shaping, credit and volume premia are simple deductions per MWh; a bankable price would derive them from your production profile, the live forward curve and the counterparty.

Reading the price

A fixed-price PPA is a swap: the seller gives up the market price for its output and receives a flat price instead. So the fair price starts from what the market would have paid for that output, and every clause either moves risk to the buyer, who charges for it, or leaves it with the seller, who nets it. The capture discount is usually the largest step. A solar MWh in Germany earned 84% of the baseload price in 2023 and about 60% in 2026; a buyer pricing a ten-year contract has to take a view on where that goes, which is why the erosion slider and the sensitivity table matter more than the balancing cost.

The structures differ in who holds the shape. Under pay-as-produced the buyer takes the output as it comes and deducts both the profile and the balancing cost. Under pay-as-forecast the seller settles its own imbalances, so the headline price is higher but the seller's net is not. A baseload-shaped contract starts from the baseload price itself and charges the seller for turning an intermittent profile into a flat one, which is the most expensive shape to sell when capture rates are falling.

This open model is the indicative version. A bankable price for a specific project needs the project's own hourly production profile, the forward curve on the day, shaping and balancing costs derived from that profile, and a credit view of the counterparty. If that is what you need, tell us about the project and we will come back to you.