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European Commission publishes revised 2027 EU ETS1 and first-ever 2027 EU ETS2 auction calendars

Implementation
CARBON MARKETSN/Aauction calendarallowance allocationETS2 launchSocial Climate Fundauction volume adjustmentEU ETS Directive Article 10a(9); EU Auctioning Regulation Articles 8(5) and 13(7); Cap 2024 decision; Member States' Phase 4 auction shares
1Problem identified
2Consultation
3Proposal
4Regulatory review
5Decision
6Implementation
7Go-live
8Market impact
What changed

The European Commission (DG CLIMA) published the revised 2027 auction calendar for EU ETS1 allowances and the first published 2027 auction calendar for EU ETS2 allowances, setting auction days (Mondays, Tuesdays, Thursdays), start dates (ETS1: 7 January 2027; ETS2: 18 January 2027), auction time windows (ETS1 9am-11am; ETS2 1pm-3pm), and volume allocations including 25 million ETS1 allowances to the Greek Decarbonisation Fund and 140 million ETS2 allowances to the Social Climate Fund plus volumes for Member States that have implemented the surrender obligation.

Why it matters

The auction calendar determines the pace and predictability of allowance supply to the market for both the established ETS1 and the newly launching ETS2 (buildings, road transport, additional sectors), directly shaping compliance planning, hedging strategies and price formation for covered entities, while the phased Member State allocation for ETS2 signals an uneven initial rollout across the bloc.

Design impact
Price formation●●○
Cross-border capacity○○○
Liquidity●●●
Operational security○○○
Market participants●●○
Affected markets
EU ETS1 allowance auctionsEU ETS2 allowance auctions (buildings, road transport, additional sectors)
Who is affected
ETS1 regulated installationsETS2 regulated entities (fuel suppliers for buildings/transport)Common auction platform (EEX)Member StatesSocial Climate FundGreek Decarbonisation Fund
MD analysis

This is a routine but market-critical implementation step in the EU ETS cycle: the Commission is operationalising previously decided design parameters (Cap 2024 decision, Phase 4 auction shares, Auctioning Regulation) into a concrete 2027 supply schedule via the common auction platform (EEX). For ETS2, this is particularly significant as it represents the first full annual auction calendar for the new buildings/transport scheme, including early auctioning of 2028 volumes under Article 8(5) to smooth initial liquidity. The explicit statement that 2027 ETS2 volumes will be revised later in 2026 as more Member States finalise surrender-obligation legislation introduces near-term regulatory uncertainty around actual tradable volumes, which market participants should monitor given its direct effect on scarcity and price dynamics in the nascent ETS2 market.

Rule / framework

EU ETS Directive Article 10a(9); EU Auctioning Regulation Articles 8(5) and 13(7); Cap 2024 decision; Member States' Phase 4 auction shares

Next milestone

ETS1 2027 auctions begin on the common auction platform · 7 Jan 2027

Primary sources

European Commission (DG CLIMA) · REGULATOR · 2026-10-01

Revised 2027 EU ETS1 and initial 2027 EU ETS2 auction calendars published

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