CRE proposes parametrization of French capacity mechanism for 2030-2031 delivery period, including PL-4 long-term auction demand curve, price cap and certification coefficients

On 8 October 2026 (Délibération n°2026-199), CRE formally proposed to the French Minister for Energy the full parametrization of the reformed capacity mechanism for the 2030-2031 delivery period, based on RTE's parametrization report (received 3 August 2026). The proposal covers the demand curve reference volume (Cref), its split between the new long-term auction PL-4 and the adjustment auction PL-1, CoNE (60 k€/MW/yr), a global price cap set at 1.2x CoNE (72 €/kW, below RTE's proposed 1.5x/90 €/kW), certification coefficients by technology (including a revised battery coefficient of 0.45 based on a 5.5 GW 2030 battery development hypothesis), new certification floor rules for multi-year contracts, and cross-border contribution values (6,665 MW total, down sharply from 12,250-14,250 MW estimated for the 2026-2027 period).

These parameters will directly determine the volume and clearing price of capacity contracted at France's first long-term capacity auction (PL-4) for winter 2030-2031, shaping revenues for nuclear, storage, renewable and demand-response capacity providers and the cost passed through to consumers via the capacity tax. The CRE's choice to cap prices below RTE's proposal and its treatment of battery certification and cross-border contributions reflect significant design tensions in the post-ARENH, post-reform mechanism and will set a template for subsequent delivery periods.

This filing is a pivotal design milestone for France's reformed capacity mechanism, introduced by the 2025 finance law to replace the ARENH-era mechanism with a two-auction structure (PL-4 long-term and PL-1 adjustment). CRE diverges from RTE on several consumer-protection-oriented parameters: it caps the global price at 1.2x CoNE (72 €/kW) instead of RTE's proposed 1.5x (90 €/kW), citing consultation feedback that existing capacities' missing money is covered at the lower level; it sets a bespoke battery storage certification coefficient (0.45, interpolated between RTE's 3GW and 8GW development scenarios plus a 10% uncertainty buffer) rather than adopting RTE's variant-dependent approach; and it introduces, for the first time, floor certification coefficients for multi-year contracts to give capacity providers revenue stability. Notably, CRE flags a structural risk in RTE's methodology: assuming each interconnected European country meets its own national reliability standard by 2030-2031 slashes the estimated cross-border contribution to French security of supply from ~12.25-14.25 GW (PL 2026-2027) to 6.665 GW — a drop of ~7.6 GW — potentially overstating the domestic capacity need. CRE explicitly flags this surdimensionnement risk and asks RTE to refine the figure ahead of the later PL-1 parametrization. The proposal also must still pass through ministerial approval (arrêté) before becoming binding, and the auction's exact calendar date is not yet specified in this filing.

French energy code articles L.316-1 to L.316-13 and R.316-1 to R.316-42; Article 19 of Loi n°2025-127 (finance law for 2025) reforming the capacity mechanism; Décret n°2025-1441 of 31 December 2025; Arrêté du 18 mars 2026 fixing capacity mechanism rules; Arrêté du 5 août 2022 on the electricity security of supply criterion

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